The EV Calculator Expected Value Stock Analyzer is a skill that applies scenario-based modeling to quantify the expected value of stock positions. Rather than relying on price action or intuition, it structures analysis across three scenarios — bull, base, and bear — and assigns probability weights to each to produce a final weighted expected return and dollar-value EV for a given position.
The skill generates scenario probabilities by drawing on catalyst-driven upside factors and macro downside risks, then refines those weights using options sentiment, historical earnings surprise patterns, and short interest data. Each calculation also includes a meta-analysis layer that reports on the quality and confidence level of the underlying data inputs, so the agent can surface uncertainty alongside the output.
Output takes the form of structured per-ticker reports. Each report covers the current position value, a breakdown of scenario probabilities against return percentages, and a final weighted expectancy score with an attached confidence rating. This structured format is designed to support hold, trim, or exit decisions grounded in statistical expectancy.
This skill is appropriate when an agent needs to automate probability-weighted risk analysis across a portfolio of individual equity positions. It is not suited to fixed-income instruments, derivatives pricing, portfolio-level optimization across asset classes, or any use case requiring real-time market data feeds, as no environment variables or data connections are defined in this skill.